Times of India
June 13, 2010
NORTH WAZIRISTAN IS THE FINAL FRONTIER
Sherry Rehman, TNN,Jun 13, 2010, 05.34am IST
Â There is a saying in Pakistan that if you canâ€™t defeat your enemy, befriend him. This is particularly true in the tribal areas that border Afghanistan, where, in six agencies, thereâ€™s an unprecedented military offensive against militants. Despite many tactical alliances and ceasefire pacts in Waziristan,Â Pakistan hasÂ gone in with firepower backed by US drones. The cornerstone of the security policy here is to attack militants close to the al-Qaida, but spare armed syndicates that protect Pakistanâ€™s flanks.
The turbulence in the Af-Pak border zone has led Washington to put out strategic leaks about possible military intervention insidePakistan. The heart of the problem is what could alter the dynamics of declining US-Nato successes in the Afghan theatre.North Waziristan agency (NWA), and what thePakistanarmy is able to do there, seems to have become the litmus test for US-Pakistan relations. After Faisal Shahzadâ€™s attempted bomb attack inTimes Square, the pressure onIslamabadto act against anti-US Taliban in NWA has increased.Islamabadpleads capacity constraints; theUScites commitment gaps.
The stakes are high. After failing to build institutional structures inAfghanistan, the test forWashingtonis linking US-Nato ground offensives in the south and Loya Paktiya to Pakistanâ€™s push on the militant Haqqani-led groups from NWA. The Obama presidency needs a game-changer in a theatre where success is elusive despite a COIN (counter-insurgency) strategy that focuses on population safety. The expected Taliban reversals have not happened despite a massive offensive in Marjah. In Washingtonâ€™s view,Pakistanis pulling its punches as it may need the Taliban when the US exits Afghanistan.
For Pakistan, this is a battle for its stability and survival. Action is overdue against terrorist and sectarian groups in Punjab, Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. There is a compelling need to act against extremist groups after the massacre of nearly a hundred Ahmadiyas inLahorerecently. ThePunjabgovernment needs to do a counter-terror sweep of its cities. The federal government must back up this action with pro-minority legislation. None of this requires the military to act, but such actions will see heightened terrorist attacks on civilians and military alike. This is something that the government will have to brace itself for.
The challenge in NWA is thatIslamabaddoes not have the military or civilian capacity to open all fronts at the same time. Enmeshed in a blighted strategic endgame, with a growing terrorist threat, tanking economy andIndiaposturing to the east, the military option in NWA cannot be a hair-trigger decision. The terrain has sobered the ambitions of several imperial powers, including the British, Russians and now perhaps the Americans. Despite impressive successes in other agencies, the army now faces 50,000 massed armed guerrillas in NWA. Hardened groups such as the Tehrik-I-Taliban, the Haqqani-group and jihadist outfits such as LeT and Lashkar-I-Jhangvi, Lashkar Zil, al-Qaida veterans and Salafists have sought sanctuary there after resisting army operations in surrounding areas.Islamabadâ€™s fear is that if it shoves a fist into this hornetâ€™s nest, maintaining the fragile consensus against terrorists at home would be difficult, as well as protecting its cities from further attacks.
This can be no â€œshock and aweâ€ exercise that can be switched off by remote control.Pakistanhas already lost over 3,000 people in two years as a result of the terrorist backlash; the economy has taken a $35 billion hit. The question is, will theUSbe around to help hold downPakistanâ€™s fist when its army swoops on al-Qaida strongholds such as Mir Ali? The militaryâ€™s tactic in any counterinsurgency initiative in mountainous terrain is â€˜pincer and chokeâ€™ the enemiesâ€™ escape routes. The 8,000-feet high mountainous trails in NWA are legendary for providing escape routes toAfghanistan. So, if these routes are not blocked, the whole exercise will lead to the enemy escaping to hospitable terrain. Given the unequal number of border checkposts on either side of the Durand Line, it is unlikely that any permanent flush-out ofWaziristanis possible. If the NWA is grand central for terrorists, then the Afghan border provinces provide strategic depth. While the US-Nato forces inAfghanistanneed to do their bit,Pakistanwill have to step up border checks and review unwritten peace deals with tribal leaders who change sides too often.
The other question is: how long can the Pakistani army stay in the agencies it has secured? Is there a civilian â€˜build, hold and transitionâ€™ component to the project? Once again, before putting pressurePakistanwith an escalating war, huge governance commitments such as ROZ (reconstruction opportunity zones) assistance will have to roll off theUSmachine. Why should Pakistan be expected to do more than reverse the Taliban tide in some areas, when US has not been able even to broker a new post-insurgency model for Afghanistan? Pakhtun alienation is not a concern for exiting nations, but it has huge blowback potential forPakistanâ€”Karachiis host to five million Pakhtuns.
What will help is a phase-by-phase plan for securing the area, holding it until the tribes that have been terrorized by the Taliban are able to return and do business. Second, though the elites inWaziristanâ€™s tribal areas have been marginalized by the Taliban, they will resist governance models that diminish their pre-Taliban political powers. The military will have to stay inWaziristanuntil the police and frontier corps in that area is strengthened, and the tribal leadership prepares for critical reforms and political activity by mainstream parties. FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) reform will only work if introduced incrementally, and the governmentâ€™s recent announcements, if implemented, will be a brave start. At the federal level, security sector reform is critical because peace deals with militants who promised not to attack government installations have almost always failed. As a temporary tactical move, there is some use in neutralizing militants to focus on the main enemy, but not in the long-run. The state must start assuming charge of security.
The politics of a military operation are never easy. No military relishes fighting inside its own borders, and no civilian, elected government embraces the use of force as a first, or even second option. The government has thrown its full weight behind the operations, despite the costs that accrue from such initiatives. As a result,Pakistannow has its own generation of lost people, human tragedies, economic crises, internal strife and political instability.
While the military presses on with an offensive in Orakzai agency, there will be little room to divert forces for anything more than strategic strikes on NWA areas where the terrorists cluster.Pakistanmust dismantle al-Qaida as well as India-centric jihadist outfits as a priority. It also must allow Kabulto form its own stable government and hope for a friendly partner. But it will need Pakhtuns to maintain stability in Afghan border provinces after the expectedUStroop withdrawal in 2011. Seeking more than surgical raids in NWA is asking for too much.Pakistanmust act decisively against terrorists, but using its own game plan.
Sherry Rehman is a member of the National Security Committee in Pakistanâ€™s Parliament